John Gruber of Daring Fireball has posted the best thing I’ve read so far encapsulating Microsoft’s current challenges in the consumer PC marketplace. He puts it in context with the history of Microsoft and Apple’s competition—especially their recent dueling ad campaigns–and takes MS executives to task for being simultaneously myopic, dismissive, and clueless when it comes to what’s happening in the retail computer marketplace.
But my favorite part is where he points out that Microsoft lost the computer geeks a few years ago and that’s the PC platform’s biggest problem. I’ve been saying this to friends of mine for awhile–the nerds all went Mac in droves when being on a Mac began to mean being on UNIX instead of the old-school Mac OS that was rather like buying a Mercedes-Benz with the hood welded shut. When Apple decided to be the platform where all flavors of nerdy digital innovator worked (as opposed to just illustrators, filmmakers and musicians), the nerd herd rallied to their flag fast. He pinpoints a subset particularly close to my heart — web developers.
Web developers had to know both the Mac and Windows, at least with passing familiarity, and the truth is that many, if not most, preferred Windows.
Today that is simply no longer the case. Microsoft has lost all but a sliver of this entire market. People who love computers overwhelmingly prefer to use a Mac today. Microsoft’s core problem is that they have lost the hearts of computer enthusiasts. Regular people don’t think about their choice of computer platform in detail and with passion like nerds do because, duh, they are not nerds. But nerds are leading indicators.
This is true in many markets with broad appeal, not just computers. Microsoft is looking ever more so like the digital equivalent of General Motors. Car enthusiasts lost interest in GM’s cars long before regular people did; the same is happening with Windows.
It might be hard to notice if you’re not watching from the techie vantage point, but the trickle-down effect of this nerd migration has been enormous–go into an Apple store on any weekend and you’ll probably have to push your way through a heterogenous crowd of browsing hipsters, grandparents, suburban moms, small children, etc just to get to the middle of the store. Everyone seems to know that a Mac is the thing to buy, and that PCs are cheaper, but they’re cheaper for a reason.
Imagine if this happened with cars
The “Laptop/PC Hunter” ad campaigns that Microsoft is so proud of make no effort to answer Apple’s contention that a Mac is a better computer–Microsoft seems satisfied merely to point out that it is possible to purchase computers for cheaper. This is just stupid. I like Gruber’s car analogy above. So what if someone tried this same ad campaign with cars? What if you saw a commercial in which GMC mocked Honda because a Civic costs more than a Geo Tracker? No one would make that commercial, because anyone who saw it would say “wait a minute–a Civic is a waaay better car than a Tracker. Of course it costs more.”
But to a lot of the people you see in these commercials — the people that Microsoft is actually targetting in a pretty savvy way — you’ll see that these are people who aren’t real comfortable with their ability to discern what’s what between computers. They don’t know too much about how they work, and actually not that much about what you can do with them. Computers make them feel uneasy. But they are comfortable with shopping for a bargain. They’ve made a religion about it, which is how there got to be things like Best Buy and Walmart in the first place.
And Microsoft is telling these people that there is equivalence between the Mac and the PC — that it’s OK to shop for this like you’d shop for a toilet brush and laugh at people who don’t. It’s ludicrous. But people have no other real basis for comparison, because if they think about it at all, they see Apple vs. PC as a tribal thing like Ford/Chevy.
But the reality is that people have settled for Windows machines for years without really knowing any better — no basis for comparison. They thought that Windows was it and computers were Windows.
I mean if you see a commercial hollering that ShitSandwiches™ are 75% off, are you going to get excited? No. Because you were never in the market for a ShitSandwich™ in the first place, thank you very much. Not even if they decide to call it Active ShitSandwich Live 2009™ But what if you don’t know it’s a ShitSandwich™?
Apple is cleaning up
As Gruber points out, MS execs believe that the PC Hunter ads work because… they answered Apple somehow. Well Gruber kicked off his post by referencing an NPD report showing that Apple now owns 91% of the $1,000+ retail computer market. Not a huge portion of the computer market by any means, but MS would do well to pay more attention to that number as an indicator.
Windows 7 isn’t going to be awesome. The Bing/Yahoo whatever isn’t going to do anything more than help out Google by keeping the US Justice Department off their back. The Wii is going to keep kicking the XBOX down the street. Exchange’s market share will get eroded by things like Zimbra (even if perhaps not Zimbra itself) over time. Office 2010 will be a laughing stock for its schizo attempt to mimic Google Docs and its bewildering interface (prediction: MS will fall on its face with something douchey for their web-based document sharing monstrosity inside the next Office). And no one is going to care about Windows Mobile I mean Windows Phone with the iPhone 3GS, the Palm Pre, and new stuff from RIM.
Long, slow decline indeed. Bring it.